Stability risk assessment of slopes using logistic model tree based on updated case histories

Abstract

A new logistic model tree (LMT) model is developed to predict slope stability status based on an updated database including 627 slope stability cases with input parameters of unit weight, cohesion, angle of internal friction, slope angle, slope height and pore pressure ratio. The performance of the LMT model was assessed using statistical metrics, including accuracy (Acc), Matthews correlation coefficient (Mcc), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and F-score. The analysis of the Acc together with Mcc, AUC and F-score values for the slope stability suggests that the proposed LMT achieved better prediction results (Acc = 85.6%, Mcc = 0.713, AUC = 0.907, F-score for stable state = 0.967 and F-score for failed state = 0.923) as compared to other methods previously employed in the literature. Two case studies with ten slope stability events were used to verify the proposed LMT. It was found that the prediction results are completely consistent with the actual situation at the site. Finally, risk analysis was carried out, and the result also agrees with the actual conditions. Such probability results can be incorporated into risk analysis with the corresponding failure cost assessment later.