Climate change risk perception in Europe: country-level factors and gender differences

Abstract

This study investigates the role of country-level and individual-level factors on climate change risk perception in 28 European countries. Based on the nature of the data and the research question, a multilevel ordered logit model is used. As individual observations are nested among countries, the data is hierarchical, justifying the use of a multilevel model. The analysis focuses on a dependent variable with ordered categories. Due to its inherent ordinal structure, the response levels convey a meaningful order. The ordered logit model explicitly considers this ordinal nature when modeling the dependent variable. On the country level, this study found that climate change risk perception rises with a higher level of income per capita and a lower level of regulatory quality. The positive effect of the national income level persists after controlling for whether the country had a communist regime past or not. On the individual level, this study found that a higher level of climate change risk perception is exhibited by more educated individuals, those with egalitarian and post-materialistic values, those with a higher interest in politics, and a lower level of personal economic worries. Overall, females express higher levels of climate change risk perception than males, but having younger children at home reduces females’ risk perceptions. Similarly, climate change risk perception levels decrease with age only for women. A series of robustness checks validate the main findings. The research suggests that EU policymakers can enhance climate policies and public engagement by considering differences in income, regulatory quality, historical context, and gender-specific aspects. Insights from this study can guide targeted risk communication.